When Not to Hit

The position below came up in a match in a major backgammon tournament, but because the score was 0-0 in a match to 13, the situation is very similar to that of a money game. There are slight differences because of score and backgammon considerations, but I often find it useful to evaluate positions as if it is a money game because that applies in more situations that in most individual match play positions. It’s a “habit” I learned from one of the all-time great backgammon players, Joe (Sly) Sylvester. As an aside, I had the please of having Joe as my house guest for several months, and during that period of time, with his coaching, I because a high level tournament player. 

In the position below, Black has to play a 4-1 and he has two tough decisions to make: First, should he hit, and second whether he hits or not, how should he play his checkers. Before I give you the answer, why don’t you decide what you would do, then read further.

Another habit that Sly taught me was to always look at the hit first, as more often than not, when you can hit your opponent, it’s the right play. So I looked at the hit, and determined that if I did that, I was leaving far too many return shots unless I played my 1 from 5-4. 

So I made that move and looked at it WITHOUT PICKING UP MY DICE, which allows me to change my play if I change my mind. It looked like a pretty good play, and years ago, I probably would have picked up my dice and moved on. But another thing I learned from Sly, and more recently from other top backgammon players, is to look carefully at every alternative before making a final decision. 

After looking at both plays, I still wasn’t completely sure, but I felt that the second play was much better for several reasons: 

1. If my opponent does not roll a 6, I am in great control of the game;
2. I know that making my 5 point and making a 5-prime is a strong position in any game;
3. I know that if I hit, I do give my opponent some immediate return shots that can really hurt me if I get hit back;
4. In order to hit, I must give up my “anchor” on my opponent’s 5 point, and that makes it very risky in that if I get hit right away, or even later in the game, I am much more likely to get gammoned. Holding your opponent’s 5 point is a very safe position in terms of preventing gammons.

As you can see below, hitting is a huge error. If I don’t hit, I win the game about 65 percent of the time, and even if I lose the game, I only get gammoned about 9 percent of the time. If I were to hit, on the other hand, and lift the blot on my 5 point, I win the game only 44 percent of the time, and when I lose, I get gammoned about 25 percent of the time.

The difference between the two plays is so great that Snowie says that the second play is actually 58 percent worse than the first play. That’s a very huge difference, and it would have been a monstrous blunder to make the hitting play. As I mentioned to you, however, a few years ago I would have made that play without even considering the right play. 

Clearly, I am a better backgammon player today, not just because I have more experience and knowledge, but because I am taking the time to consider all the alternatives and look at everything before I make a play I am not completely sure of. It helps to have some “rules of thumb” to apply, and there were several that applied to this situation, but several of those rules of thumb conflicted. And that’s why you just can’t play backgammon too fast. I have seen many of the best players in the world take several minutes on plays that I thought were pretty much automatic. And then I have seen them make a play I would not have made, and sure enough, after putting it into the computer programs and thinking about it, their play was clearly right.